Market Vybe #10
Tariffs on tariffs on tariffs
👉 Weekly Recap
I am officially tired of winning.
Last week, PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) data came in hotter than expected, implying that interest rates will stay higher for longer. This was followed by a fresh barrage of tariffs, this time targeting the auto and pharmaceuticals industry. As a result, crypto and stocks tumbled.
To recap, in March:
The S&P fell -5.2%,
The NASDAQ is down -8.1%,
Bitcoin is down -2.0%,
& Solana fell -15.3%
Maybe even more important than all of this, OpenAI’s image generator recently got an upgrade, and for a brief moment the entire internet was ‘Studio Ghibli-fied’. It was wholesome.
What is "Liberation Day"?
"Liberation Day" is April 2, 2025, when Trump plans to unveil a significant wave of tariffs aimed at reshaping U.S. trade policy. He’s framed it as a pivotal moment to "free" America from what he calls unfair foreign trade practices, promising to restore wealth to the U.S. economy.
He purposely avoided setting it for April 1st, because he wanted to make sure people knew he was serious. I wish I was joking.
Trump has hyped it as "the big one," contrasting it with earlier, smaller tariff actions like the 25% levy on foreign autos announced March 26th, 2025.
It’s difficult to judge whether “Liberation Day” is already priced-in, and therefore a buying opportunity. But to give you some hope, Jim Cramer(the ultimate inverse signal) said “I can’t think of a dumber day to buy stocks than today[March 31st].”
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin got rejected off the downward trend line for the 5th time! It does appear that we could be forming a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern. If we can rally through resistance, that would be a good sign of a bottom on bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s correlation with Global M2 (liquidity) has been well documented. It’s price typically lags 70-80 days behind Global M2. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin should show some strength in the coming months.
👉 Solana News
Solana’s network revenue data is showing promising signs of a recovery. Solana’s 7d revenue of $18.5M is up 54% week-over-week and makes up 39% of total protocol rev marketshare.
BlackRock’s $1.7B BUIDL fund now live on the Solana blockchain after debuting on Ethereum last year. It’s expected to hit $2.0B in April.
Permissionless Bitcoin debuts on Solana with Zeus Network’s zBTC
Strategy recently added 22,048 BTC to their balance sheet for $1.9 billion.
👉 Alpha of the Week
Trump Tokens Begin to Unlock: A Short Seller’s Dream?
The Trump Token ($TRUMP), launched in January 2025 on Solana, initially made headlines with its explosive debut. Marketed as a "presidential meme coin," it quickly surged to a $15 billion market cap and hit an all-time high of $75—only to crash over 85% within weeks, trading around $10 by late March.
Much of the skepticism stemmed from the coin’s heavily centralized ownership: 80% of the supply was allocated to Trump-affiliated entities—CIC Digital LLC, Fight Fight Fight LLC—and a handful of insiders. Accusations of a classic “pump-and-dump” followed, damaging investor confidence and exposing the token’s lack of fundamental value.
Now, with the next token unlock scheduled for mid-April—just 17 days away—markets could see renewed volatility. The upcoming release will unlock 4% of the total supply, equivalent to 20% of the current circulating supply, or roughly $414 million at today’s prices. This will be followed by a daily vesting drip of 0.25%, approximately $5 million per day.
While there’s potential for a pre-unlock pump to prop up prices, the combination of concentrated ownership, weak fundamentals, and incoming supply makes $TRUMP a prime shorting candidate. For traders looking to profit from a supply-driven dip, timing and sentiment will be everything. And of course, this is not financial advice!
👉 Vybe Announcements
The Vybe team is gearing up for a couple of major events & milestones:
- The [REDACTED] hackathon is now live! As sponsors, we're excited to present the Vybe Telegram Bot Challenge. $5000 in prizes up for grabs from the Vybe team!
- Vybe is also sponsoring the startup village in Toronto, taking place from May 1st - May 16th, with workshops and events planned for builders on Solana. If you’re participating in the Colosseum Hackathon, Vybe will be providing free access to our APIs. Connect with with us on Telegram for details. Startup Village registration here.
- We're less than 30 days away from the launch of Vybe V2! To unlock full access to the premium features, you'll need to hold some VybeSOL. Unlock powerfull features while you earn on your SOL.
Where to get VybeSOL:
If I am right, tariffs mean more things made in America and lower taxes. If I am correct, then I am going all in. https://tinyurl.com/yeyp6evt